Why it matters: If rail traffic increases are underestimated, it can affect service reliability, as well as impact communities, and the ability of regulators to fully evaluate the merger.
This includes:
- Underestimated volumes increases: If traffic growth is undercounted and growth locations are inaccurately predicted, rail networks might not be adequately planned—creating risk of congestion and service disruptions for customers.
- Unclear local impacts: Communities will not see the true increase in train traffic they will experience, including crossing blockages and other impacts in their regions.
- Incomplete regulatory review: Without accurate data, regulators will not fully understand impacts on competition or identify appropriate safeguards.
UP and NS’s analysis in their initial filing understated how much traffic they expect to gain from other railroads. This means the full impact on routes, service, and competition will be unknown.
A complete and accurate picture of future traffic is critical so customers, communities, and regulators can properly assess what this merger means in practice.
Ask yourself:
Could changes in traffic levels or routing affect your service, capacity, or supply chain reliability? Do you want to be surprised with more trains running through your community, potentially impacting your commute?